Sisters, Oregon · Deschutes County
Confidential — For Authorized Use Only
Senior Living Market Conditions — Sisters, Oregon
Sisters, Oregon is a small destination community in Deschutes County. Population estimates for Sisters vary by source: the City of Sisters estimates 2024 population at approximately 3,738, while U.S. Census Bureau estimates range from 2,957–3,022 for the same period, and Portland State University's Population Research Center estimated 3,823 in 2023. These discrepancies are common for small cities between decennial counts. This report uses ACS 2019–2023 5-year estimates (population ~3,018) for demographic percentages unless otherwise noted. The city's median age of 49.8 years is significantly above both the Oregon state average (40.1) and the national average. An exceptional 36.7% of residents are aged 65 or older per ACS 5-year estimates (notably higher than the 2020 Census figure of 27.9%), and approximately 35% are aged 65–84, with 1.7% aged 85+, creating one of Oregon's most concentrated senior populations per capita. The median household income falls in the $80,000–$95,000 range depending on source (ACS 5-year: $93,115; City dashboard: ~$80,000), and median home values of approximately $586,000 indicate an affluent community with strong purchasing power for senior living services.
Note: Population, age, and income figures throughout this report are based primarily on ACS 2019–2023 5-year estimates and City of Sisters planning data, which can differ from point-in-time Census counts or other survey methodologies.
The 2023 BBG appraisal of The Lodge in Sisters (411 E Carpenter Lane) valued the property at $12,600,000 as-is and $14,100,000 upon stabilization. The property consists of 62 assisted living units built in 2019 on a 5.27-acre parcel with an additional vacant 1.78-acre excess land parcel valued at $700,000. The property has since been repositioned primarily as an independent living community with assisted living support through third-party home health agencies.
Important licensing context: The 2023 BBG appraisal evaluated the property as a 62-unit assisted living facility with AL licensing. In April 2025, the prior assisted living license (70A338) was closed and operations were repositioned as independent living with care provided by third-party home health agencies. For supply/demand counts throughout this report, Sisters is treated as having 62 IL units and 0 currently licensed AL beds unless otherwise noted. Where earlier tables reference The Lodge within the PMA's 300 AL-bed total, that reflects the 2023 BBG framework when AL licensing was active.
Within the city of Sisters, The Lodge Retirement Community is the only purpose-built senior living facility. It provides 62 units configured as studio, one-bedroom, and two-bedroom apartments on a single-story campus featuring restaurant-style dining, a fitness center, library, theater, billiards room, salon, walking paths, and themed courtyards. Oregon licensing records show the former "Sisters Senior Living" license (70A338) at the same address was closed April 24, 2025, and the facility has been relaunched under The Lodge Retirement Community brand.
No other institutional senior living communities exist within the Sisters city limits.
The BBG 2023 appraisal defined the Primary Market Area (PMA) as a 20-mile radius. Within this PMA, the competitive supply totals 300 AL beds and 59 MC beds across seven facilities. All competitors except The Lodge are located in Redmond and Bend, approximately 20–25 miles east-southeast of Sisters.
| Facility | Location | AL Units | MC Units | Year Built | Occupancy (2023) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Lodge (Subject) | Sisters | 62 | — | 2019 | 92% |
| Brookside Place | Redmond | 45 | — | 1994 | 89% |
| Juniper Springs Senior Living | Redmond | 40 | 39 | 2017 | 89% / 91% |
| Regency Village at Redmond | Redmond | 55 | — | 1994 | 86% |
| Fox Hollow | Bend | 43 | — | 2004 | 91% |
| Brookdale Redmond | Redmond | 40 | 20 | 2005 | 92% / 92% |
| Pacific Living Centers | Redmond | 15 | — | 2000 | N/A |
| TOTAL | 300 | 59 | 89.8% / 91.3% |
Source: BBG Inc., 2023 Appraisal Report; NIC MAP; BBG field research.
| Metric | Subject PMA | NIC MAP Primary Avg. |
|---|---|---|
| Overall AL Occupancy | 89.8% | 81.2% (Q1 2023) |
| Average Monthly Rent (AL) | $5,312 | $6,179 |
| Total AL Inventory | 300 units | 341,788 units |
| Construction Pipeline | 0 units | 18,679 units |
| 5-Year Inventory Growth | 0.00% | 5.47% |
| AL Penetration Rate | 5.7% | 5.37% |
Source: BBG Inc. / NIC MAP Monitor Q1 2023.
Key takeaway: The PMA demonstrates occupancy rates well above national averages with zero new construction in the pipeline — a supply-constrained market with strong fundamentals. The 5.7% penetration rate exceeds the national average, reflecting the area's disproportionately large senior population.
Four independent market studies conducted between 2011 and 2023 have consistently validated strong demand for senior living services in the Sisters market:
BBG, Inc. (November 2016) determined a need for 108 AL units using NIC's 14.75% penetration rate for the 75+ population. With no other ALFs in Sisters, the 62-unit project was well within unmet demand. Projected stabilization: 94% in 18 months at 3.4 units/month absorption.
Aaron Brown & Associates (2016 & 2017) concluded adequate demand for 62 units, projecting 12.5–14.4% growth in the 75+ PMA population. Net demand showed an undersupply of 37–40 units even after the 62-unit subject was included.
Pacific Northwest Group (2011/2013) determined the primary market could support up to 87 units of private-pay assisted living, finding the market undersupplied by 87 units.
The Sisters senior living market is characterized by severely constrained supply, robust demographics, above-average occupancy rates, and zero new competitive development. The Lodge holds a monopoly position as the only senior living community in Sisters, supported by fundamentals validated by four independent appraisals. The excess 1.78-acre parcel presents a significant expansion opportunity.
Demand Drivers and Market Indicators — Sisters, Oregon
| Indicator | Sisters | Deschutes Co. | Oregon | National |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Age | 49.8 yrs | 42.5 yrs | 40.1 yrs | 38.9 yrs |
| Population 65+ | 36.7% | 21.2% | 18.9% | 17.3% |
| Median Household Income | $80,000–94,500† | $87,640 | $71,562 | $74,755 |
| Median Home Value | $586,000 | $523,000 | $423,000 | $303,400 |
| Homeownership Rate | 79.3% | 66.2% | 63.4% | 65.0% |
| Bachelor's Degree+ | 42% | 39% | 36.3% | 33.7% |
Sources: ACS 2019-2023 5-Year Estimates; City of Sisters; Neilsberg; Data USA. †Sisters MHI range reflects City dashboard (~$80K) vs. ACS 5-year estimate (~$93–95K); see methodology note in Report 1.
Sisters has experienced 208% population growth since 2000 — faster than 97% of similarly sized U.S. cities. The population grew from 959 in 2000 to 3,064 in 2020 to ~3,738 in 2024. The 75+ population in the 20-mile PMA is projected to increase 16.9% from 2023 to 2028 (BBG/Claritas).
Central Oregon attracts retirees through outdoor recreation, natural beauty, a four-season climate, no state sales tax, Social Security income exemptions, and access to St. Charles Medical Center in Bend (~22 miles). Sisters has a large Vietnam-era veteran population (1.73× the national average), indicating veteran-focused services could be a meaningful differentiator.
National occupancy reached 89.1% at year-end 2025 — the 18th consecutive quarterly increase (NIC MAP, Q4 2025). Independent living remained above 90% and assisted living reached 87.7%. Active adult occupancy neared 92%. Year-over-year inventory growth fell below 1% for the third consecutive quarter — the lowest sustained levels since NIC MAP began tracking in 2006. The average asking rent for senior housing exceeded $5,650 in Q3 2025, a 4.3% year-over-year increase (Multi-Housing News / NIC MAP quarterly data). NIC MAP data indicate average operating margins surpassed 25% in mid-2025, the highest since 2018 (NIC MAP Senior Housing Market Outlook). NIC projects occupancy above 90% by end of 2026 — potentially the highest ever recorded. The oldest baby boomers turn 80 in 2026, and the U.S. 80+ population will grow by 4 million between 2025 and 2030 (a 27% increase).
Note: Specific national rent ($5,650) and margin (25%+) figures are derived from NIC MAP quarterly data releases and the NIC MAP Senior Housing Market Outlook report as cited by Multi-Housing News and PwC/ULI Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2026. Precise facility-level data requires proprietary NIC MAP subscription access.
| Care Level | Oregon Avg. (2024) | Bend / Central OR | National Avg. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Independent Living | $3,279/mo | $3,500–4,000/mo | $2,925/mo |
| Assisted Living | $5,550–5,825/mo | $5,700–5,900/mo | $4,917/mo |
| Memory Care | $7,000–7,500/mo | $7,200–7,800/mo | $6,200/mo |
| Nursing Home (Semi-Pvt.) | $14,585/mo | $13,000–15,000/mo | $9,277/mo |
Sources: Genworth Cost of Care Survey 2024; Caring.com; ElderLife Financial.
The Sisters market presents a compelling demand story: (1) outsized senior population, (2) affluent demographics with strong ability to pay, (3) severe supply gap with only one facility in the immediate market, (4) zero competitive construction activity, (5) national tailwinds from aging boomers and constrained supply, (6) desirable retirement destination with strong migration patterns. All four prior independent market studies unanimously confirmed demand exceeding current supply.
Independent Living, Assisted Living & Memory Care — Sisters, Oregon
This Comprehensive Demand Study analyzes the market opportunity for senior living services in Sisters, Oregon, across three service levels: Independent Living (IL), Assisted Living (AL), and Memory Care (MC). The Primary Market Area (PMA) is defined as a 20-mile radius from The Lodge Retirement Community.
Key findings indicate substantial unmet demand across all three service levels. Within Sisters, 36.7% of the population (~1,108 people) are 65+, and the 75+ PMA population is projected to grow 16.9% from 2023 to 2028. The current supply of 62 IL/AL units at The Lodge and zero MC beds in Sisters — against 300 AL and 59 MC beds in the broader PMA — leaves significant room for expansion.
Bottom line: We project demand for approximately 40–60 additional senior living units in the Sisters market (comprising additional IL, AL, and a dedicated MC component), with potential for additional phases as boomers continue aging into the 80+ cohort over the 2026–2035 horizon.
Consistent with the 2023 BBG methodology, the PMA is a 20-mile radius capturing Sisters, Redmond, and portions of western Bend (~110,000–120,000 residents). Given Sisters' geographic isolation (20–25 miles of rural highway from competitors), this study also analyzes a "Sisters Core Market" (10-mile radius, ~5,000–8,000 residents with significantly higher senior concentrations).
| Age Cohort | Population | % of Total | Senior Living Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 18 | ~389 | 12.9% | Not age-qualified |
| 18–44 | ~530 | 17.6% | Workforce / potential staff |
| 45–64 | ~939 | 31.1% | Adult child decision-makers |
| 65–69 | 448 | 14.8% | Active adult / IL prospects |
| 70–74 | ~350 | 11.6% | IL / early AL prospects |
| 75–79 | ~200 | 6.6% | Core AL prospects |
| 80–84 | 24 | 0.8% | AL / MC prospects |
| 85+ | 52 | 1.7% | AL / MC / higher acuity |
| Total 65+ | ~1,108 | 36.7% | Age-qualified seniors |
Sources: ACS 2019-2023 5-Year Estimates; Neilsberg; U.S. Census Bureau.
| Category | 2023 Est. | 2028 Proj. | 5-Year Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Population | ~110,000 | ~119,300 | +8.5% |
| Population 75+ | ~5,250 | ~6,140 | +16.9% |
| Population 85+ | ~1,200 | ~1,450 | +20.8% (est.) |
| Adult Children (45-64) | ~28,000 | ~29,400 | +4.95% |
Sources: BBG Inc. 2023 Appraisal; Claritas demographic projections.
| Indicator | Sisters | Deschutes Co. | Oregon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Household Income | $94,524 | $87,640 | $71,562 |
| Per Capita Income | $41,550–57,043 | $38,500 | $36,800 |
| Median Home Value | $586,000 | $523,000 | $423,000 |
| Homeownership Rate | 79.3% | 66.2% | 63.4% |
| Poverty Rate | 6.9% | 8.5% | 12.0% |
| Bachelor's Degree+ | 42% | 39% | 36.3% |
| Self-Employed | 29.1% | 18% | 12% |
The high homeownership rate (79.3%) and substantial home values ($586K median) provide residents with significant home equity to fund senior living. Household income for ages 45-64 is $102,917, indicating strong "adult child" capacity. Low poverty (6.9%) and high education (42% bachelor's+) correlate with higher private-pay utilization rates.
| Facility | City | Distance | IL | AL | MC | Total | Built |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Lodge (Subject) | Sisters | 0 mi | 62* | — | — | 62 | 2019 |
| Brookside Place | Redmond | ~20 mi | — | 45 | — | 45 | 1994 |
| Juniper Springs | Redmond | ~20 mi | — | 40 | 39 | 79 | 2017 |
| Regency Village | Redmond | ~20 mi | — | 55 | — | 55 | 1994 |
| Fox Hollow | Bend | ~22 mi | 43** | 43 | — | 86 | 2004 |
| Brookdale Redmond | Redmond | ~20 mi | — | 40 | 20 | 60 | 2005 |
| Pacific Living Centers | Redmond | ~20 mi | — | 15 | — | 15 | 2000 |
| TOTAL | 105 | 238 | 59 | 402 |
*The Lodge currently operates primarily as IL. **Fox Hollow offers both IL and AL. Sources: BBG 2023; Oregon DHS; facility websites.
Critical supply gap: Zero new construction in the PMA pipeline. All competitors are 20+ miles from Sisters. Average competitor facility age is 18 years. No memory care exists within 20 miles of Sisters.
| IL Demand Calculation | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75+ Population (2025 est.) | 5,700 | 5,700 | 5,700 |
| Penetration Rate | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
| Total IL Demand | 285 | 314 | 342 |
| Current PMA IL Supply | ~105 | ~105 | ~105 |
| Unmet IL Demand | 180 | 209 | 237 |
| Sisters Capture Rate | 15% | 18% | 20% |
| Sisters IL Allocation | 27 | 38 | 47 |
The Lodge's 62 IL units serve current local demand adequately. As the 75+ population grows to ~6,140 by 2028, additional IL demand of 15–30 units will materialize.
| AL Demand Calculation | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75+ Population (2025 est.) | 5,700 | 5,700 | 5,700 |
| AL Penetration Rate | 10.0% | 12.0% | 14.75% |
| Total AL Demand | 570 | 684 | 841 |
| Current PMA AL Supply | 238 | 238 | 238 |
| Unmet AL Demand | 332 | 446 | 603 |
| Sisters Capture Rate | 10% | 12% | 15% |
| Sisters AL Allocation | 33 | 54 | 90 |
A conservative estimate of 30–40 dedicated AL units in Sisters is well-supported by the data.
| MC Demand Calculation | Low | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75+ Population (2025 est.) | 5,700 | 5,700 | 5,700 |
| Dementia Prevalence (75+) | 10% | 11% | 12% |
| Persons w/ Dementia | 570 | 627 | 684 |
| MC Penetration Rate | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Total MC Demand | 143 | 188 | 239 |
| Current PMA MC Supply | 59 | 59 | 59 |
| Unmet MC Demand | 84 | 129 | 180 |
| Sisters Capture Rate | 12% | 15% | 18% |
| Sisters MC Allocation | 10 | 19 | 32 |
A dedicated 16–24 bed memory care wing in Sisters is strongly supported. No MC exists within 20 miles of Sisters.
| Service Level | Current Supply | Demand (2026-2030) | Gap | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independent Living | 62 units | 62–85 units | 0–23 units | Medium |
| Assisted Living | 0 licensed beds | 30–55 units | 30–55 units | HIGH |
| Memory Care | 0 beds | 16–24 beds | 16–24 beds | HIGH |
| TOTAL | 62 units | 108–164 units | 46–102 units |
Pursue AL relicensing within existing 62-unit building. Create IL/AL mixed model with 40–45 IL units and 17–22 AL units through service-level differentiation. Leverages existing infrastructure.
Develop the 1.78-acre excess land parcel (appraised $700K) for 16–24 MC beds and 15–20 AL units. Fills complete absence of MC in Sisters. Est. investment: $5–10M.
Add 20–30 IL units and evaluate active adult / "IL Lite" products for the 55–74 demographic. Sisters' 448-person 65–69 cohort represents a strong future demand pipeline.
The Lodge's advantages include: (a) only senior living in Sisters proper (captive market); (b) newest facility in PMA (built 2019); (c) iconic Three Sisters mountain views; (d) excess land available for expansion; (e) walkable downtown proximity. Integration of veteran services through A Place for Vets could further differentiate, given Sisters' outsized veteran population.
Based on four prior studies and national benchmarks: 3–5 units/month for IL/AL, 2–3 beds/month for MC. Initial absorption of 15–30% in month one. Stabilized occupancy of 92–95% projected within 14–18 months.
| Source | Data Utilized | Date |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. Census Bureau / ACS | Population, demographics, income, housing | 2019-2023 5-Yr Est. |
| BBG Inc. Appraisal | PMA supply, occupancy, penetration, valuation | July 18, 2023 |
| BBG Inc. Market Study | Demand penetration, absorption projections | November 21, 2016 |
| Aaron Brown & Associates | Demand analysis, 5-year projections | March 2017 / Oct 2016 |
| Pacific Northwest Group | Private pay demand, market capacity | May 2011 / April 2013 |
| NIC MAP Monitor | National occupancy, rent, supply trends | Q1 2023 / Q3 2025 |
| NIC / ASHA | Industry benchmarks, operator data | 2022–2025 |
| Genworth Cost of Care | Oregon senior living cost data | 2024 |
| Oregon DHS | Licensing records, facility status | 2025 |
| Claritas (via BBG) | PMA demographic projections | 2023–2028 |
| City of Sisters | Local population, planning data | 2024 |
| PwC / ULI Emerging Trends | National market outlook | 2026 |
This document was prepared for The Lodge Retirement Community for strategic planning purposes. It does not constitute an appraisal or guarantee of future market performance. Recipients should conduct independent verification and consult appropriate professionals before making investment decisions.